Theory of change: how you think change happens

A theory of change describes how and why you think your work changes something. It is the route from what you do to what you want to achieve. With the assumptions that have to hold along the way.

The word theory is meant seriously. It is a hunch you test, not a promise to a funder or investor.

When do you make one?

• When you start a new programme or organisation.
• When a funder, investor or board asks for one.
• When partners or your team each picture the goal differently.
• When you want to know why something does or doesn’t work.

Step by step

1. Decide on the long-term change you want to see.
2. Work backwards · what has to happen first?
3. Add your activities · what do you do yourself?
4. Write down your assumptions · what has to be true?
5. Choose an indicator for each step · how do you see it happening?
6. Test the whole with the people it is about.

Mistakes we often see

• The line is too straight. Change is messy.
• The people it is about had no voice.
• It was made once and never looked at again.
• Activities sit where outcomes should be.
• The ambition is too big, or too small.

A theory of change that we see in real use usually fits on one A3 sheet. The team gets it out when a choice comes up. And it adjusts it when something turns out differently than expected. A founder who says in a pitch which assumption is still uncertain often earns more trust than a polished diagram.

Are you a funder yourself? Then ask grantees for a rough first version instead of a finished document. Discuss together which assumption is weakest.