# A theory of change in an afternoon

> A funder, investor or proposal asks for a theory of change. Here is how we make a first version in one afternoon, with your own team.

Source: https://narrate.works/resources-and-insights/theory-of-change-in-an-afternoon
Language: English (Nederlands: https://narrate.works/tools-en-inzichten/verandertheorie-in-een-middag)
Publisher: Narrate (Narrate B.V.), https://narrate.works

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Guide

3 min read21 October 2026

A funder, investor or proposal asks for a theory of change. Here is how we make a first version in one afternoon, with your own team.

For social enterprises, founders and 2 moreLeadershipImprovementBelongs to

For

[Social enterprises](https://narrate.works/with/social-enterprises), [Founders](https://narrate.works/with/founders), [Foundations](https://narrate.works/with/foundations), [Universities & research](https://narrate.works/with/universities-research)

Perspective

[Leadership](https://narrate.works/impact-management#steer), [Improvement](https://narrate.works/impact-management#improve)

Phase

[Strategy & scope](https://narrate.works/resources-and-insights?phase=strategyScope), [Intelligence design](https://narrate.works/resources-and-insights?phase=intelligenceDesign)

Frameworks and methods

[Theory of change (ToC)](https://narrate.works/impact-management/frameworks#verandertheorie), [Five dimensions of impact](https://narrate.works/impact-management/frameworks#vijf-dimensies)

Keywords

[Theory of change](https://narrate.works/keywords#verandertheorie), [Workshop](https://narrate.works/keywords#workshop), [Indicator set](https://narrate.works/keywords#indicatoren)

A funder wants to see your theory of change, and an investor asks for one. A proposal to NWO asks for an impact plan. Horizon Europe calls it pathways to impact. It sounds like a big document, but you can make a first version in an afternoon.

## What it is

A theory of change shows how your work leads to change. From what you do, to what people notice, to what is different in the long run. And which assumptions lie underneath. It is not a diagram to tick off, but a conversation on paper about how you think it works.

Four to eight people is a good group. Invite someone from the board or the founder, and a few people who do the work. If possible also someone you do it for, such as a participant or customer. In a research project, a partner from practice is very valuable.

## How we run the afternoon

1. Start with the goal, half an hour. What should be different in five years, and for whom? Write it in one sentence.
2. Then work backwards, forty-five minutes. What has to happen before that goal is reached? Go step by step back to what you do now.
3. Look at your activities, half an hour. Which belong to each step, and what is missing?
4. Write down the assumptions, half an hour. For example that participants have time, or that customers keep using the product. Put the weakest assumption at the top.
5. Finally choose a first indicator per step, fifteen minutes. A sign that shows whether it is happening.

At the end you have a drawing on one A3 sheet and a list of assumptions. And a few indicators to start with. For a proposal, a pitch or a talk with your board, that is enough. It is still a first version: you only know whether your assumptions hold after some measuring.

## Where it often goes wrong

The drawing gets too many arrows, while one main route is clearer. Or it only shows activities, and the change for people is missing. Sometimes the claims are too big: you show what you contribute, not that you cause everything. And often the theory of change is made once and then put away. It is better to look at it again every six months.

## For investors and funders

An investor often looks at the five dimensions of impact: what, who, how much, contribution and risk. Your theory of change already gives a first answer on what, who and contribution. Your assumptions are a start on risk. For how much you need figures. A funder mainly checks whether your assumptions match practice.

If you are a funder yourself, ask grantees for a first version like this instead of a thick document. That way you judge the logic without asking too much of them.

Would you like us to take a look? That usually starts with a half-day workshop with your team.

Photo: [Kristin O Karlsen](https://unsplash.com/@kristinokarlsen?utm_source=narrate&utm_medium=referral) via [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/?utm_source=narrate&utm_medium=referral)

## Need specific guidance?

Get in touch for personalised support with your impact management question.